Guest Column: Orange County Industrial Real Estate Market
By Robert W. Scherreik and James DeSimone
We appreciate this invitation from the Orange County Partnership to share our insights on Orange County’s industrial real estate market. Our analysis is based on market information compiled and evaluated on a quarterly basis by Pyramid Brokerage Company and Cushman & Wakefield’s research department.
In Orange County, we track activity on 177 industrial buildings which each measure at least 50,000 square feet (SF). The total inventory of Class A, B, and C space is currently about 29 million SF, with about 1.8 million SF available for lease; this equates to a vacancy rate of 14.5% as of September 30, 2025. This decline from the historically high 15.3% vacancy rate three months earlier was due to occupancy gains during the third quarter which included three deals in which our firm was involved: a 241,800 SF sublease by Superior Pack Group at 3303 Route 6 in the Town of Wawayanda, the lease of 47,000 SF to Jeeter Brands at 55 Midland Avenue in Middletown, and a 24,883 SF sublease by Ryder Transportation at 9 Tarkett Drive in New Windsor.
Uncertainty about tariffs and economic growth during most of 2025 has slowed the demand for industrial space in Orange County -- and pretty much throughout the nation – because users are more hesitant to move forward with new leases or sales. This shift has also caused some firms to close facilities or offer excess space for sale or sublease which drives up the supply of available space.
When one looks only at reported statistics and economic forecasts, it’s difficult to predict when Orange County’s industrial real estate sector will return to the boom times enjoyed earlier this decade. The longer-term outlook is far brighter, however, when one looks beyond reported statistics at four trends.
First, the construction and leasing of Class A buildings to prominent firms such as Tesla, Amazon, Medline, Cardinal Health, Cencora, and UNFI have shown Fortune 500 users, site selectors, national developers, and lenders that Orange County is an attractive location to build and operate industrial operations. As a result, newer industrial space built during the past 10 years with 32’ or higher ceilings-- generally referred to as “Class A” space -- now accounts for 12.1 million SF or 42% of all tracked industrial space in Orange County.
Next, several large build-to-suit industrial leases close to breaking ground are not reflected in reported statistics until foundations are poured and walls begin to go up. These include the recently announced 3.2 million SF Amazon fulfillment center, and a 650,000 SF distribution center for one of the nation’s largest liquor distributors.
Thirdly, developers including Crow Holdings, Brookfield Properties, and Matrix are creating a strong pipeline of speculative industrial space in Orange County: Crow Holdings has a 535,603 SF building in the Town of Wallkill that should be ready for occupancy within the next 90 days, Brookfield’s 422,983 SF warehouse is targeted for completion by August 2026, and Matrix is building its fourth spec building in the Town of Newburgh with 595,900 SF ready for occupancy in 2026Q4. Class A industrial space available for immediate occupancy is critical if one wants to capture Fortune 500 users. These buildings will be added into the inventory of existing buildings only upon completion.
Finally, the explosive increase in the demand for industrial space during the COVID-induced e-commerce boom drove up industrial rents that in turn led to a boom in industrial land development. Developers led by the RDM Group, Scannell Properties, and Matrix contracted to purchase over 20 large tracts of land in Orange County suitable for industrial development. They then made substantial multi-year investments in legal and engineering to seek site plan approvals and create about 25 “shovel-ready” industrial sites suitable for the construction of over 9.0 million SF of building area. This pipeline of “shovel-ready” building sites, if constructed during the next several years, could increase the total inventory of industrial space in Orange County by about 30%. Significantly, about 4.8 million sq. ft. of this land development pipeline has already been built or is currently under construction for users or speculative buildings.
All in all, while industrial real estate in both Orange County and the rest of the nation is experiencing tepid demand, historical experience teaches us that this should soon pass. When that happens, Orange County will be well-positioned to win more than a fair share of new industrial job and economic growth.
Robert W. Scherreik, SIOR, CCIM, MCR
James DeSimone, SIOR
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD / PYRAMID BROKERAGE COMPANY
